Autonomous trucking company Aurora Innovation says it plans to run more than 30,000 driverless trucks by 2030, but carrier partners say the cost case still has to be proven at scale.
Aurora told investors at its September 23 Analyst and Investor Day in Dallas that it expects to end 2026 with 200 driverless trucks and pass 1,000 by the end of 2027, FreightWaves reported. The company projects more than $5 billion in revenue in 2030 and says its system has logged over 500,000 driverless miles. Its driverless trucks hauling for customers including McLane and Werner are averaging more than 225,000 miles a year, which Aurora says is more than double a conventional truck’s utilization.
Carriers are less certain. Daragh Mahon, chief information officer at Werner Enterprises, said Werner is still negotiating terms with Aurora. “I will be quite honest that we have a gap,” he said, adding that the economics become viable only at a real scale. Mahon said the best fit is long-haul, middle-mile runs of 500 miles or more. Insurance is another open question: Chris Moore of Apollo, the Lloyd’s syndicate that insures Aurora, said autonomous trucks currently cost slightly more to insure than human-driven ones, though he expects rates to fall 15% to 25% a year.
Most of Aurora’s planned growth depends on carriers buying and operating the trucks themselves and paying Aurora per mile for the driving. Hirschbach has signed a nonbinding agreement to operate 500 such trucks starting in 2027, and Volvo expects more than 300 factory-built autonomous trucks in service by the end of 2027.
IAM Member Impact: Driverless trucks are not built for residential moves, but members relying on long-haul freight carriers for linehaul, consolidation, or container drayage may see autonomous capacity emerge on major interstate lanes over the next few years. Members should watch how carrier pricing and capacity on those lanes shift as fleets scale, particularly given persistent driver shortages.
Source: FreightWaves