A return to normal container shipping to and from the Middle East is at least three months away, with freight rates still to peak, according to a leading ocean and air freight rate benchmarking and market analytics platform.
In a press release, Xeneta said that even in a best-case scenario, the scale of disruption puts a recovery of ocean supply chain networks at mid-September 2026, with spot rates rising for at least another four weeks. The report highlighted that 99 container services operated in or transited the Arabian Gulf prior to the conflict, deploying a combined nominal capacity of 3.2 million TEU. Currently, only 11 services remain active, representing just 74,000 TEU of active capacity in the region.
Xeneta expects a three-stage recovery starting with extracting ships and crew stuck inside the Arabian Gulf for almost four months. Following that, there will hopefully be a return of feeder and regional services into regional ports before a final return of major long-haul services on the Asia-Europe and Asia-North America trades. “These carry the highest volume and the greatest supply chain risk if there is a sudden deterioration in the security situation,” said Xeneta.
Meanwhile, freight rates have continued to climb throughout the conflict, with rates from the Far East to the U.S. West Coast for a FEU increasing 192% and rates from North Europe to the U.S. East Coast climbing 57%.
IAM Member Impact: International moving professionals in the region encourage IAM members to maintain contingency routings and the transit times quoted throughout the conflict.
Source: Xeneta