The Strait of Hormuz’s longest calm stretch of the conflict ended overnight Monday into Tuesday, when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps struck two commercial vessels near Limah, Oman.
The attacks came hours after Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced the Gemini Cooperation’s first Suez Canal expansion since March. The confirmed strike set an LNG tanker ablaze, and a second vessel sustained significant damage; no casualties were reported. The timing complicates, but doesn’t yet reverse, Monday’s decision to shift the AE15 service back to Suez routing: the lead vessel, Majestic Maersk, isn’t due at the canal until around July 24, leaving carriers roughly two and a half weeks to judge whether this was an isolated incident or a return to open hostilities. Maersk has said contingency plans remain in place to revert to the Cape of Good Hope if conditions deteriorate.
In his latest commentary on the situation, Craig Reilly of DASA had already urged the industry to maintain transit time buffers amid elevated regional dwell times and flagged a Suez Canal transit surcharge increase set for July 15, with talk of a future toll regime that could keep costs structurally higher even after services resume. These cautions carry added weight now that the calm behind the Gemini decision has broken.
IAM Member Impact: IAM repeats its advice to members in the region to maintain contingency routings and quoted transit times. The Gemini announcement should not be read as a signal of durable stability; members should keep planning around further disruption ahead of the Majestic Maersk’s late-July transit.
Member Contributions: DASA