The International Energy Agency (IEA) says wholesale diesel prices in Europe could rise again in the coming weeks, and that tight supply will continue well into 2027 despite a recovery in Gulf oil output.
In its monthly report this week, the IEA said global oil supply rose by 2.5 million barrels a day to 102.3 million in September, led by Saudi Arabia, but still falls short of demand of about 103.5 million barrels a day. Diesel prices have eased from September’s records above $200 a barrel but remain almost double the price of crude and their precrisis levels. Middle Eastern fuel exports are below half of prewar volumes, and Ukrainian drone strikes have damaged Russian refineries.
The IEA warned that rising tanker freight costs could push delivered diesel prices higher in Europe, Africa, and Latin America, the largest importing markets. It does not expect lost diesel stocks to be rebuilt before the second half of 2027. The G7 has pledged to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency stocks, diesel first, but Euronews reports the release would cover barrels still owed from an earlier pledge rather than add new supply.
IAM Member Impact: Diesel is the largest variable cost in intra-European and national road moves, and the IEA expects pressure to continue through mid-2027. Members should review pricing and allow for increases when preparing tariffs for next year.
Source: Euronews