Mortgage rates in the United States are closing in on 7% for the first time since January 2025, a milestone economists say will further discourage home sales and, with them, the relocation volume that feeds the moving industry.
The 30-year mortgage rate is tracking a 10-year Treasury yield that briefly topped 5% this week, its highest since late 2023. Michael Fratantoni, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said the jump will likely cause prospective buyers to pause rather than sign contracts or apply for loans. The National Association of Realtors reported existing-home sales fell 2% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, the lowest since June 2025. Zillow economist Kara Ng has cut her 2026 sales growth forecast from an earlier 4.3% projection to just 1.3%, with a 3.5% fourth-quarter decline expected.
Unlike the last rate spike in 2023, inventory is now closer to pre-pandemic levels, as sellers grow impatient waiting for relief. But higher rates threaten to slow down that improvement, and some sellers are pulling back from the market entirely. Home builders, who have relied on mortgage-rate buydowns to move inventory, face shrinking margins as those incentives get costlier, which could curb new construction and the relocation activity tied to it.
IAM Member Impact: Members serving the local and interstate consumer market segment should expect continued softness through the fourth quarter, even as corporate and government-directed moves remain comparatively insulated from mortgage-rate pressure.
Source: The Wall Street Journal