More bad news for the challenging U.S. domestic consumer moving market. Pending home sales, which measure signed contracts on existing homes, fell 7.3% in September from August and were 11.3% lower than a year earlier. Closed sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, down 2.2% year over year, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Closed existing home sales rose 1.5% in September but fell year over year in all four regions. Single-family sales reached an annual rate of 3.64 million, down 1.9% from a year ago, and condo and co-op sales fell 5.4% to 350,000. The South, the largest market, was nearly flat year over year at 1.86 million, down 0.5%, while the West posted the steepest annual decline at 5.2%. The Midwest was down 2.1% and the Northeast 4.1%. In better news for the professional moving market, the $1 million-and-up price band was the only one with an annual gain, rising 4%, while the weakness was concentrated at the lower end. In the Midwest, $1 million-plus sales rose 16.1% while sales under $250,000 fell by double digits.
The pending figures suggest weaker closings ahead. Contracts signed in September usually close, and lead to household moves, one to two months later. Signed contracts fell in every region, with the steepest monthly declines in the West (down 9.2%) and the South (down 8.2%). The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose from about 6.8% at the start of September to 7.6% by month-end, according to Mortgage News Daily. “Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, who warned that fourth-quarter closings could be measurably down. Inventory rose to 1.60 million homes, its highest level since November 2019, and median time on market increased to 33 days.
New construction is also slowing. Single-family housing starts fell 4.56% in September to an annual rate of 859,000, the lowest level since September 2025, and building permits fell 4%, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The National Association of Home Builders’ October sentiment index dropped to its lowest level in 14 years, with buyer traffic as the weakest component.
IAM Member Impact: The September drop in signed contracts points to fewer consumer household moves in November, with the West and Northeast weakest and the South holding up best according to the closed-sales annual data. Growth in $1 million-plus sales suggests steadier demand for larger moves, even as overall volumes soften. Members should likely plan for lower domestic volume into the first quarter.