U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Aug. 30, and Iran responded with missiles and drones on U.S. bases in Jordan and the UAE. War-risk insurance now runs roughly 40 times pre-crisis levels, according to IAM members DASA and Move One.
U.S. Central Command said the Larak strike hit two IRGC launchers preparing to fire sea mines into the strait; Jordan reported intercepting eight missiles aimed at its King Hussein and Al Azraq air bases, with no impacts. The exchange has left Hormuz traffic thin rather than closed: Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted 73 transits Aug. 10-16, against 91 the week prior, and DASA’s Craig Reilly reported just five transits on Aug. 26 against a 10-day average of 15.
Underwriters are pricing the risk accordingly — Move One puts war-risk cover at 3-10% of hull value on Gulf tankers, up from a pre-crisis 0.25%, with six P&I clubs withdrawn from the Gulf entirely. Four major container lines have already stopped routine Strait transits as a result.
With Hormuz effectively priced out of use, carriers have few good alternatives. The Red Sea remains a separate risk zone in its own right, with Yemen’s Mokha port shut since Aug. 15 after Houthi missile strikes. Gulf airspace adds a further complication: the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) avoidance covering Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE, and part of the Gulf of Oman expired Aug. 31 with no renewal published, and Move One said it will treat the avoidance as continuing until EASA states otherwise. The resulting diversions are straining land bridge alternatives, with the UAE’s east coast gateway pausing export container acceptance and reporting waits of up to 10 days.
IAM Member Impact: Members should treat the Strait as closed for planning regardless of its physical status, with insurance, not access, now the binding constraint. Build in the standard 21-day transit buffer plus a three-day documentation buffer for southern-gateway shipments, request 24-hour insurance quote refreshes, and confirm airspace status before any Gulf-adjacent air booking given the lapsed EASA advisory.
Sources: DASA (Craig Reilly); Move One Cargo & Logistics Situation Report