Global container volumes are outpacing port capacity, with empty-box imbalances and congestion threatening to end decades of cheap, reliable ocean freight.
Container demand rose 5.2% year-over-year in the first half of 2026, with Chinese exports up 12.4%, according to maritime analytics firm Xeneta, as shippers diversified supply chains ahead of new U.S. tariffs. Sea-Intelligence estimates roughly 1.8 million 20-foot containers are effectively “missing” from circulation at any given time, equivalent to the capacity of the world’s eighth-largest carrier, as congestion ties up boxes at both ends of major trade lanes.
The imbalance is worsening on the backhaul leg from the U.S. and Europe back to Asia. Hapag-Lloyd CEO Rolf Habben Jansen said the ratio of loaded return containers has fallen sharply, pushing up the cost of repositioning empty boxes. MSC CEO Soren Toft noted that fleet capacity is not the constraint. “We can have as many ships on the planet as we want,” he said, but congested ports leave vessels queuing regardless. World Shipping Council CEO Joe Kramek pointed to a record order book alongside continued cargo growth, warning that ship size is nearing the physical limits of ports and chokepoints like the Suez Canal.
Not all the growth is a headwind. DP World is expanding its London Gateway terminal, already handling 3.1 million containers annually, with a second rail terminal and two new berths by 2030, plus the world’s first automated stacking system for empty containers, which U.K. ports CEO Kris Adams called a potential “game-changer” for capacity-constrained ports.
IAM Member Impact: Members should expect continued volatility in ocean freight rates and transit reliability on Asia-linked lanes, particularly where household goods shipments compete for space with commercial cargo.
Source: Financial Times